Market_Betting

Cross-track overview

Every track’s currently open, still-actionable flags (game/event not yet started, line still live), with each track’s own top 10 shown separately below, ranked by that track’s own edge value — a model probability edge for pick’em/weather/politics/props, or net profit per dollar risked for arbitrage. Tracks are kept separate here deliberately, since a probability edge and an arbitrage profit-per-dollar aren’t really the same unit — see each track’s own tab for the real methodology behind its numbers.

— Open, actionable flags (all tracks)

— Tracks reporting live data

— Best edge right now (any track)

— Long-dated politics rows shown below

Track 1 Pick’em — top 10 by edge

Opportunity	Side	Venue	Edge	Timing

Track 2 Arbitrage — top 10 by net profit/$1

Opportunity	Type	Venue	Edge	Timing

Track 3 Weather — top 10 by edge

Opportunity	Side	Venue	Edge	Timing

Track 4 Politics — top 10 by edge

Rows marked Long-dated resolve in more than 60 days — a real edge here is not the same kind of bet as a same-day flag in another track.

Opportunity	Side	Venue	Edge	Timing

Track 5 Props — top 10 by edge

Opportunity	Side	Venue	Edge	Timing

— Open flags

— Closed & graded

— Average CLV edge

— Positive-edge rate

Running average CLV-equivalent edge

Running average of clv_edge_at_close across every closed flag, in the order each line closed — not a running sum, which grows without bound as more flags close and stops meaning anything. This is the project’s long-run trendline — expected to include real losing stretches.

Currently flagged opportunities

Open lines from the live hourly pipeline, sorted by model edge. Check exactly two PrizePicks flags to size them as a 2-pick Power Play entry below.

	Player	Team	Stat	Side	Platform	Line	Model edge	Game time

Sizing calculator

Runs the exact same math as scripts/sizing/sizing_engine.py — quarter-Kelly, the PrizePicks account-risk dampener, the same-game caution factor, and the 5%-of-bankroll cap — entirely in your browser. Your bankroll figure is never saved anywhere; it resets the moment you leave or reload this page. This stays exactly as manual as the script: one entry (two legs) at a time, and it has no memory of any stake you've already placed, so update the bankroll figure yourself between entries.

Selected legs

None selected. Check two PrizePicks flags in the table above.

Current bankroll ($)

Recently closed flags

The last 25 lines to resolve, most recent first.

Player	Stat	Side	Platform	Closing line	CLV edge at close	Closed

— Flags this run

— Single-venue (YES+NO)

— Cross-venue pairs

— Fillable at flagged size

Currently flagged arbitrage opportunities

Output of the latest automated run of scripts/run_arbitrage_pipeline.py, sorted by net profit per dollar risked, after each venue's real taker fee is subtracted. This table replaces itself completely on every run — it is a point-in-time snapshot, not a running log the way the pick’em CLV chart above is. Sizing a flagged pair is still a manual step (sizing_engine.py arbitrage size) — this page never sizes or places anything.

Type	Venue A	Market A	Ask A	Venue B	Market B	Ask B	Net profit / $1	Fillable	Legal footprint

— Open flags

— Closed & graded

— Average CLV edge

— Positive-edge rate

Currently flagged contracts

Open lines from the daily weather calibration pipeline, sorted by model edge. Kalshi is the only venue this track ingests, so there is no cross-venue consensus benchmark here — the closing-price benchmark (a contract disappearing from a fresh pull) is what grades these flags instead, and it works well for this track specifically because weather contracts resolve in days, not weeks or months.

City	Target date	Forecast	Strike	Side	Market price	Model edge	Lead time

Recently closed flags

The last 25 contracts to resolve or drop off the board, most recent first.

City	Target date	Side	Closing price	CLV edge at close	Closed

— Open flags

— Closed & graded

— Average CLV edge

— Avg. time to resolution

Currently flagged races

Open positions from the daily politics pipeline, sorted by model edge. These are long-dated positions — a race can sit open for weeks or months before it resolves, unlike pick’em or arbitrage flags, which close same-day. The Time to resolution column is the whole point of this track’s frontend card: it tells you, at a glance, how long your capital would stay tied up if you took this position. Rows waiting longer than 60 days are highlighted.

Candidate	Party	State	Race	Venue	Market price	Model edge	Time to resolution

Recently closed flags

The last 25 races to resolve or drop off the board, most recent first.

Candidate	Party	State	Venue	Closing price	CLV edge at close	Closed

— Open flags

— Closed & graded

— Average CLV edge

— Positive-edge rate

Currently flagged props

Open lines from the 3-hourly DraftKings/FanDuel pipeline, sorted by model edge. The Risk column is this track's own account-limiting-risk indicator: every row carries an Acct. limit risk badge, because sportsbooks limiting or banning consistently-winning bettors is this project's own best-corroborated risk for this venue type (PROPS_PLATFORM_RISK_MULTIPLIER, applied equally to DraftKings and FanDuel — no source in this project distinguishes the two). A second Field vig badge appears only on rows whose own price still includes DraftKings' one-sided field vig (implied_prob_includes_field_vig) — a real per-row signal, unlike the platform-level badge, which is the same on every row today.

Player	Team	Stat	Side	Platform	Line	Model edge	Game time	Risk

Recently closed flags

The last 25 props to resolve or drop off the board, most recent first.

Player	Stat	Side	Platform	Closing price	CLV edge at close	Closed